Playing the Devils Advocate for a bit.

[HomerJay]

Hear me out..
Once more and more people start installing batteries and PV systems and the electricity companies start to feel their daytime usage profits slipping, what’s to stop them simply raising their off peak prices substantially or dropping them altogether to keep their profits high?
Many household PV install decisions (including mine) are being made on the availability of that sweet 7.5p rate but if that should go up to say, 22.18p (like Outfox the market’s off-peak tariff), would the investment in solar make much sense in the winter months?
Are the energy companies legally obliged to provide a cheap off-peak tariff to anyone or did it startup in the ‘70s just to raise a little extra business for night-time grid latency?

 

[Geoff1946]

You need a crystal ball to answer that! - and such knowledge would earn you a fortune.
If the EV use of overnight charging develops that's going to push up overnight demand, as is the very market you are in of charging batteries to lighten daytime load.
I don't claim to understand economics but if you smooth out demand there must be less justification for variable pricing. I'm not aware of any compulsion on suppliers to offer off peak tariffs, but even if there is that could change with political whim.
If I were investing I would want the self generation capability to justify my expenditure.

 

[Sharpend]

Are you a young un Homer?
If you were to look back over time the whole political/economical world works in cycles, cycles that follow the trends of the time, prices tend to follow the cycle, it’s called maximising profits, whether financial or political. So do not be surprised if your theory doesn’t emerge as fact within a few years or so.

 

[binky]

Are the energy companies legally obliged to provide a cheap off-peak tariff to anyone or did it startup in the ‘70s just to raise a little extra business for night-time grid latency?

Absolutely not, although currently it helps balance out generation capacity.

Simple fact is private industry has one motivation, profits for shareholders. Look at the current crisis, why the hell are we paying as much money for electricity generated by a wind turbine as a gas turbine? Have a read on how much China will be making from paying for the new nuclear plant. Then work out how a state owned energy structure is probably going to cost us a lot less, and would have probably invested decades ago in the infrastructure we need thereby avoiding the current crisis. Also have a read on the French government buying out a larger share of EDF to control energy prices in France at a level a lot lower than ours. Private industry has no motivation to invest as scarce resources are good for profits. In a very similar way shortages of skilled trades is putting my earnings up because I can charge more and work less. I'm actually quite pleased at the lack of apprentice training, it's good for me, even if I do still keep prices reasonable. Can't help noticing how much others are charging these days and are busy.

 

[johnb2713]

Its a tough one, from my perspective, I installed solar and battery this year, I do have 2 x EV too and use the wonderful Octopus GO with an off peak rate of 7.5p. Most of the time that's all I use, occasionally if the weather is bad I end up using a small amount of peak rate energy. My backup plan if the 7.5p rate should disappear is to leave the grid completely. I have a nice 20 kVA diesel generator, with an old school Perkins diesel engine, nicely silenced, it's my intention if I have to go this route to use my mothballed bio buddy to create bio diesel (used cooking oil available at 15p litre) and run the engine for a few hours in the daytime as a combined heat and power system (I have a marine heat exchanger with this in mind). I would also add some more solar panels to my garage and shed roof's.

 

[Gian]

Its a tough one, from my perspective, I installed solar and battery this year, I do have 2 x EV too and use the wonderful Octopus GO with an off peak rate of 7.5p. Most of the time that's all I use, occasionally if the weather is bad I end up using a small amount of peak rate energy. My backup plan if the 7.5p rate should disappear is to leave the grid completely. I have a nice 20 kVA diesel generator, with an old school Perkins diesel engine, nicely silenced, it's my intention if I have to go this route to use my mothballed bio buddy to create bio diesel (used cooking oil available at 15p litre) and run the engine for a few hours in the daytime as a combined heat and power system (I have a marine heat exchanger with this in mind). I would also add some more solar panels to my garage and shed roof's.

You cannot win , if you do go total off grid then you need to look at what you use and reduce everything. I my self have a 12 KW gen as a stand by and last weekend I actually experimented . I charged my ev with a load of 6.6 KW using my generator. Red diesel is now £129 per litre and with messing around with measuring fuel used I calculated that 69pence per KW. So grid at the moment is cheaper still. I watched the panorama programme and as usual it's just greed and the Ukraine war is used as a tool. Our governments should be brought to account over relying on fuel from Russia and other country's , . Thousands of people are rushing out buying solar and battery's to save , and now we are being told we have a shortage of parts like roof rails , people I know are happy to spend £10k on a 3.86kw system with 5kw battery thinking they are sorted but what they don't tell customers is the payback is 7 to 9 years crossing fingers you have no failures then in winter months that 3.86 array will not have enough light to charge that ,5kw battery. The way to go is to make your home switch to off grid from your supply and live basic. I have one customer who has this arrangement with huge flooded battery's 48v 13kw and 6 KW solar. He switches over from grid to off grid and his monthly grid bill is now £17.23 a month. But they don't have huge TVs amps and mid cons which we all love

 

[Gian]

You cannot win , if you do go total off grid then you need to look at what you use and reduce everything. I my self have a 12 KW gen as a stand by and last weekend I actually experimented . I charged my ev with a load of 6.6 KW using my generator. Red diesel is now £129 per litre and with messing around with measuring fuel used I calculated that 69pence per KW. So grid at the moment is cheaper still. I watched the panorama programme and as usual it's just greed and the Ukraine war is used as a tool. Our governments should be brought to account over relying on fuel from Russia and other country's , . Thousands of people are rushing out buying solar and battery's to save , and now we are being told we have a shortage of parts like roof rails , people I know are happy to spend £10k on a 3.86kw system with 5kw battery thinking they are sorted but what they don't tell customers is the payback is 7 to 9 years crossing fingers you have no failures then in winter months that 3.86 array will not have enough light to charge that ,5kw battery. The way to go is to make your home switch to off grid from your supply and live basic. I have one customer who has this arrangement with huge flooded battery's 48v 13kw and 6 KW solar. He switches over from grid to off grid and his monthly grid bill is now £17.23 a month. But they don't have huge TVs amps and mid cons which we all love

Mod cons like a modern family but they get by happily but again they changed there life style.

 

[johnb2713]

You cannot win , if you do go total off grid then you need to look at what you use and reduce everything. I my self have a 12 KW gen as a stand by and last weekend I actually experimented . I charged my ev with a load of 6.6 KW using my generator. Red diesel is now £129 per litre and with messing around with measuring fuel used I calculated that 69pence per KW. So grid at the moment is cheaper still. I watched the panorama programme and as usual it's just greed and the Ukraine war is used as a tool. Our governments should be brought to account over relying on fuel from Russia and other country's , . Thousands of people are rushing out buying solar and battery's to save , and now we are being told we have a shortage of parts like roof rails , people I know are happy to spend £10k on a 3.86kw system with 5kw battery thinking they are sorted but what they don't tell customers is the payback is 7 to 9 years crossing fingers you have no failures then in winter months that 3.86 array will not have enough light to charge that ,5kw battery. The way to go is to make your home switch to off grid from your supply and live basic. I have one customer who has this arrangement with huge flooded battery's 48v 13kw and 6 KW solar. He switches over from grid to off grid and his monthly grid bill is now £17.23 a month. But they don't have huge TVs amps and mid cons which we all love

I have no intention of reducing anything if I go off grid. My system will have 21kWh of storage and 11 kW of inverter capacity, both probably expanded if I do make the jump.
The Red Diesel bit I can understand hence why I would be using Bio Diesel made in my Bio Buddy from used cooking oil, it shouldn't cost much more than 20p per litre of fuel. Using the generator as part of a Combined Heat and Power bring massive economies to the project.
I'm guilty of installing solar and battery as a result of rising prices. Octopus informed me my direct debit needed to be raised from £178 per month to £565 per month, I ran my meter reading through a spreadsheet and found that £465 based on last years consumption would be nearer the mark. Even at £465 it's acceptable to me so a search for solar and battery was undertaken. Through the summer our actual energy bill for both gas and electricity has been around £65, through the summer a saving of £400 per month is very nice. I know it's going to drop in wintertime like a stone, but even so, our break even is going to be around 3.7 years if prices remain as they are. We do make use of Octopus GO and charge the battery overnight, the system uses a substantial amount of battery power before and after solar PV waking up / going to sleep. I think the real secret in getting the best out of these systems financially is a good off peak tariff, a decent size inverter 10kW+ and a decent amount of battery storage.

 

[binky]

Mod cons like a modern family but they get by happily but again they changed there life style.

lifestyle is the major change some people need to make. Being something of a tree hugger, I've always lived life in a frugal way. Make no mistake I don't live like a hermit, far from it, but all lights went to LED years ago, I try to make sure no lights are left on in empty rooms, unused rooms are not heated, TV gets switched off at the plug every night, installed solar panels 10 years ago, etc etc. All these little things have allowed me to pay off the mortgage and benefit from low bills long before the energy crisis emerged. I just wish I could get the house better insulated. I'm a little reticent about external wall cadding, I need to research exactly the right system for victorian single skin walls, as the last thing I need is to create damp issues. My son is threstening to come home for a month at xmas, as much as I love him I'm not looking forward to that because my frugal nature doesn't seem to have rubbed off on him. But that's not unusual for his generation, they really do need to learn how to reduce energy consumption and live life without 'stuff'.

 

[binky]

I have no intention of reducing anything if I go off grid. My system will have 21kWh of storage and 11 kW of inverter capacity, both probably expanded if I do make the jump.
The Red Diesel bit I can understand hence why I would be using Bio Diesel made in my Bio Buddy from used cooking oil, it shouldn't cost much more than 20p per litre of fuel. Using the generator as part of a Combined Heat and Power bring massive economies to the project.
I'm guilty of installing solar and battery as a result of rising prices. Octopus informed me my direct debit needed to be raised from £178 per month to £565 per month, I ran my meter reading through a spreadsheet and found that £465 based on last years consumption would be nearer the mark. Even at £465 it's acceptable to me so a search for solar and battery was undertaken. Through the summer our actual energy bill for both gas and electricity has been around £65, through the summer a saving of £400 per month is very nice. I know it's going to drop in wintertime like a stone, but even so, our break even is going to be around 3.7 years if prices remain as they are. We do make use of Octopus GO and charge the battery overnight, the system uses a substantial amount of battery power before and after solar PV waking up / going to sleep. I think the real secret in getting the best out of these systems financially is a good off peak tariff, a decent size inverter 10kW+ and a decent amount of battery storage.

can't see the off peak rates disappearing anytime soon, greater wind farm / green generation will mean the energy companies will still need to dump leccy overnight under certain weather conditions, and nuclear is decades away from coming on-line. Off grid always sounds great, but is hard to actually make cost efficient against limited importing from the grid.

What I suspect may happen is more smart grid control of batteries combined with the half hour tariffs, but I personally would not want a third party using my battery stack to balance out grid issues, unless getting paid enough for exported energy!

3.7 years, only 24 months ago it would have been more like 12 years

 

[johnb2713]

lifestyle is the major change some people need to make. Being something of a tree hugger, I've always lived life in a frugal way. Make no mistake I don't live like a hermit, far from it, but all lights went to LED years ago, I try to make sure no lights are left on in empty rooms, unused rooms are not heated, TV gets switched off at the plug every night, installed solar panels 10 years ago, etc etc. All these little things have allowed me to pay off the mortgage and benefit from low bills long before the energy crisis emerged. I just wish I could get the house better insulated. I'm a little reticent about external wall cadding, I need to research exactly the right system for victorian single skin walls, as the last thing I need is to create damp issues. My son is threstening to come home for a month at xmas, as much as I love him I'm not looking forward to that because my frugal nature doesn't seem to have rubbed off on him. But that's not unusual for his generation, they really do need to learn how to reduce energy consumption and live life without 'stuff'.

I have done a lot in the last few years, changed from Range Rover 4.4 TDV8 to EV, Wifes Galaxy 2.0 Diesel to Outlander PHEV, installed more aircon units, all lighting changed to LED and the best money saver of all.....both of my sons moved out! When I said I wouldn't be changing lifestyle, I should have qualified it with 'if I go off grid'.

 

[johnb2713]

can't see the off peak rates disappearing anytime soon, greater wind farm / green generation will mean the energy companies will still need to dump leccy overnight under certain weather conditions, and nuclear is decades away from coming on-line. Off grid always sounds great, but is hard to actually make cost efficient against limited importing from the grid.

Only if the times get reversed i.e. if peak demand was through the nigh LOL

What I suspect may happen is more smart grid control of batteries combined with the half hour tariffs, but I personally would not want a third party using my battery stack to balance out grid issues, unless getting paid enough for exported energy!

Indeed, if the export rates are good, why not!

3.7 years, only 24 months ago it would have been more like 12 years

I had looked at solar several times over the last 15 years or so, it never made financial sense to me until the energy prices went up.

 

[binky]

I had looked at solar several times over the last 15 years or so, it never made financial sense to me until the energy prices went up.

My own array has paid for itself several years ago, that cost me around £7k for a 3.6kw array! But I did get the highest tariff of course. Most of my customers have reported somewhere between 6 and 10 years. Payback has obviously been dependent on installation costs and FiT at the time of installation, some roofs are just more complicated than others

I've used to try to keep pricing to within a 10 year payback, it's psyhcological! Over 10 years, and I would suggest people look at energy saving like LED and loft insulation - some still wanted solar just to be greener and leave the planet in a better condition for their grandchildren. The calculated paybacks were in line with official figures, in reality, because I do go the extra mile when selecting gear and I avoided being greedy with labour, I don't think any of my customers havn't done better than the quoted payback times. Recent price hikes in energy now means they are quids in of course with many years of life left in their systems.