climate change is natural?

[binky]

stumbled across these today, thought some of you might enjoy explanations from real climate scientists.

 

[johnb2713]

stumbled across these today, thought some of you might enjoy explanations from real climate scientists.

I watched this one and it certainly is thought provoking, I had always believed in climate change but I didn't accept that it was all man made and clearly there is an underlying climate cycle but man is making a big contribution to the effect. The real issue is what are we all doing about it? for me and for other reasons, I have 2 x Electric cars, Heatpumps and good insulation. I accept I don't have many years left on this mortal earth but hopefully I have contributed a little to help.

How about the rest of you, what are you doing?

 

[binky]

I accept I don't have many years left on this mortal earth but hopefully I have contributed a little to help

It's always surprised me how many of my solar customers were 70+ , their motivation being to try and leave the planet in a better place for their grandchildren. The financial benefits being secondary to that.

I thought I would post those 2 videos, and in particular the second one, as it shows what utter geeks scientists tend to be. A common gaslighting argument being they get paid to promote climate change. The second guy looks rather autistic spectrum to me, far more interested in studying the climate than any financial gains.

 

[ProDave]

Well I built my new well insulated house all electric with a heat pump. Better than burning the roughly 2000 litres of Kerosene that we did in the last house.

Our runabout car, that we use for shopping and most long journeys if we don't have anything big to transport is hybrid. But I do have my "planets worst enemy" diesel 4X4 and will keep that until a viable alternative that can tow stuff a decent distance comes along at a price I can afford (which means second hand) But in mitigation it does not do many miles.

I am not against us all making improvements, but I do hate in so many ways the way the media portray it. ICE vehicles being the big planet killers for instance. Actually no, before I built the new house, the old one burned more oil each year than our cars. HOUSING is the big climate problem yet to be solved because frankly most of the uk housing stock is utter rubbish and to upgrade it properly is going to cost a LOT and nobody has dared think about it beyond scratching the surface. Cars are just the easy target, the low hanging fruit, make us all feel guilty when it does not make as much difference as upgrading all the houses.

And I dislike the way the media just keep banging on about how bad things are, very seldom do you hear any PRAISE at how well we are doing. And we ARE improving. If you want faster uptake of more wind power then someone needs to give the people upgrading the electricity a big kick up the proverbial, it is mostly insufficient grid capacity slowing things down.

Which neatly brings me to my past point, there would be no point in us ALL getting electric cars and heat pumps until the grid can support it and there is a lot more renewable generation. We don't want all these "green" things like EV's and heat pumps powered prediminently by oil or gas fired power stations. So why put the cart before the horse?

Lets just keep going as fast as we can, with those in charge forcing the things that are slowing things down like electricity grid upgrades to happen faster.

 

[ProDave]

I will just add that all the "experts" lose 99.9% of their credability as far as I am concerned when they try and tell us that burning wood on an industrial scale at DRAX is "carbon neutral" when any idiot can see the same CO2 goes up the chimney as if it was burning coal, but only now there are a lot less trees standing to absorb the CO2 being produced.

When that is shut down and declared a big mistake, I will start to believe a bit more of what the "experts" say.

 

[Geoff1946]

I admit to being a skeptic. Maybe human activity is accelerating natural change but short of the HR becoming extinct I don't believe that's likely to change much. Neither do I believe it is apocalyptic. We should be striving to adapt, not arrogantly claiming we can control the world climate.
I don't believe there is a, "climate emergency", and hate the fact that supposedly responsible bodies such as local government have picked up this extremist propaganda and regularly quote it.
I also hate many of the actions which are being taken in the name of environment. Destroying our industry and shipping in everything manufactured from China, who are developing their industries to compensate, is clearly LESS environmentally friendly, not more. It merely impoverishes us.
Similarly refusing gas/oil exploration licences, or fracking, to indulge vocal campaign groups, then importing from across the world. Who but the most naïve believes this to be a world environmental benefit?
So, come on, let's look at the issues in a pragmatic way and find genuine improvements which are not just virtue signalling,

 

[ProDave]

Also miss reporting. There has been a problem up here with coastal erosion over this last winter, most notably golf courses built on coastal sand dunes. We have had a lot of storms lashing the coast this year which has been the root cause.

The the journalists go and throw in "rapidly rising sea levels"

So someone care to tell me how much the sea level in Scotland has risen in say the last 10 years? Not very much. That is not the cause of increased sand dune erosion.

 

[Murdoch]

What is never discussed is the population growth from 2 billion in 1920 to 8 billion in 2020

That must have an effect

 

[binky]

I admit to being a skeptic. Maybe human activity is accelerating natural change but short of the HR becoming extinct I don't believe that's likely to change much. Neither do I believe it is apocalyptic. We should be striving to adapt, not arrogantly claiming we can control the world climate.

I think its at around 3C we get to 'runaway climate change' that's when the permafrost melts, releases massive amounts of methane, and nothing we do can reverse that and it becomes truly apocalyptic. Fortunatley you and I will be dead before that happens. Did you actually watch the first video Geoff? It's a short explanation of how climate change is not natural, ergo it's man mad, ergo, if we have made it, we can unmake it too. The cost of adaptation, which we are doing increasingly, is far higher than removing the root cause eg how much to move London due to flooding V reducing fossil fuel useage. Even nuclear power plants farmed out to the Chinese and French are cheaper than moving cities.

I don't believe there is a, "climate emergency", and hate the fact that supposedly responsible bodies such as local government have picked up this extremist propaganda and regularly quote it.

the right wing press and ineffectual right wing government likes to portray protestors as tree hugging swampy types who are just extremists - it's easier than dealing with the truth.

I also hate many of the actions which are being taken in the name of environment. Destroying our industry and shipping in everything manufactured from China, who are developing their industries to compensate, is clearly LESS environmentally friendly, not more. It merely impoverishes us.

nothing to do wth the environment, shipping the work aborad for profit was down to the fianancial bods - free market capitalism, but not good for the planet as the carbon footprint of shipping goods half way around the world is obviously higher. Shops full of plastic shite really bugs me too.

Similarly refusing gas/oil exploration licences, or fracking, to indulge vocal campaign groups, then importing from across the world. Who but the most naïve believes this to be a world environmental benefit?

we are not, nor have ever been, self sufficient in oil and gas, and why indulge such things when you can build wind turbines cheaper - it's a gas lighting argument about being self sufficient. Keeps money in the hands of the oil and gas industry. As for Fracking, I have serious doubts about pumping chemicals into the ground and long term chances for poisoning our own water supplies.

So, come on, let's look at the issues in a pragmatic way and find genuine improvements which are not just virtue signalling,

totally agree, all the possibilites to reduce our dependence on foreign energy and goods imports are available now, what is lacking is the political will to use them - and don't forget the people with money are still trying to screw us in the process, eg carbon capture. Needs big money investment and no doubt will be charged out for big money, paid by the tax payer Now how much is a set of solar panels on your house....oh but ordinary people can do that

 

[apprentice87]

Watch this..



Dan has about half a billion quid, so he knows a thing or two..

john..

 

[johnb2713]

Watch this..



Dan has about half a billion quid, so he knows a thing or two..

john..

Intersting counter to the video's posted above and he raises some good points.

 

[johnb2713]

Well I built my new well insulated house all electric with a heat pump. Better than burning the roughly 2000 litres of Kerosene that we did in the last house.

Just out of interest did you do that for the green implications or reduced running costs? I went EV totally to reduce running costs, the green aspect is a bonus for me.

Our runabout car, that we use for shopping and most long journeys if we don't have anything big to transport is hybrid.

Hybrid or plug in hybrid?

But I do have my "planets worst enemy" diesel 4X4 and will keep that until a viable alternative that can tow stuff a decent distance comes along at a price I can afford (which means second hand) But in mitigation it does not do many miles.

I think the planets worst enemy are the diesel 4x4's that never tow anything or go offroad, Chelsea Tractors, theyre the ones that should be taxed off the road.

I am not against us all making improvements, but I do hate in so many ways the way the media portray it. ICE vehicles being the big planet killers for instance. Actually no, before I built the new house, the old one burned more oil each year than our cars. HOUSING is the big climate problem yet to be solved because frankly most of the uk housing stock is utter rubbish and to upgrade it properly is going to cost a LOT and nobody has dared think about it beyond scratching the surface.

I'm not sure about the 'most' tag here, a lot of it I would agree.
I've just spent the last 8 weeks driving a Tesla car around 8 major citied housing stock on a project funded by the UK Space Agency. The car is equipped with a very expensive camera and Lidar system that records heatloss from buildings etc. It does a lot of other stuff too, way above my pay grade. The data is analysed by AI techniques and is producing some spectacular results, some them not anticipated (it analyses the litter in the streets and can identify some as coming from McDonalds, KFC, Costa, Starbucks etc). The data is going to be used to target insulation improvements to get the biggest bang per buck for UK zero carbon target. The 8 weeks was a trial of concept and we passed1 million homes target about 6 weeks in, the funding has now been released to scan 30 million homes. So look out for me scanning homes near you .

Cars are just the easy target, the low hanging fruit, make us all feel guilty when it does not make as much difference as upgrading all the houses.

Cars are an easy target and a relatively quick and simple fix so I can see why theyre at theyre high up the priority list.

And I dislike the way the media just keep banging on about how bad things are, very seldom do you hear any PRAISE at how well we are doing. And we ARE improving. If you want faster uptake of more wind power then someone needs to give the people upgrading the electricity a big kick up the proverbial, it is mostly insufficient grid capacity slowing things down.

When you say grid capacity, are you referring to the generation capacity feeding into the grid or the capacity of the grid to transport the energy around the country? The latter is being helped enormously by all of the solar / battery installations taking place, energy is supplied locally to users when the grid demand is high, this reduces the loading considerably. It would be good to see more schemes for feeding into the grid during periods of maximum demand. I helped out with few during December and January and the payment was excessive in my view (on one occasion £4 per kWh). If the energy suppliers could have a scheme where your account was credited with a small percentage added for costs and a favourable supply tariff that would be better IMHO.

Which neatly brings me to my past point, there would be no point in us ALL getting electric cars and heat pumps until the grid can support it and there is a lot more renewable generation. We don't want all these "green" things like EV's and heat pumps powered prediminently by oil or gas fired power stations. So why put the cart before the horse?

There are a few true green energy suppliers such as Octopus, my cars run from around March through September on my solar alone. As far as putting the cart before the horse, necessity is the mother of invention, the demand needs to come first in my view.

Lets just keep going as fast as we can, with those in charge forcing the things that are slowing things down like electricity grid upgrades to happen faster.

I agree, we have Rolls Royce beating down the doors of government with their modular Nuclear Reactors that can be installed and on stream in less than 5 years, why are we not placing massive orders for these?

 

[binky]

Watch this..



Dan has about half a billion quid, so he knows a thing or two..

john..

Another non scientist shouting the odds who happens to have made his money from oil . Fact is sea levels are not rising fast enough to stop investment in flood prone areas, and I don't think it would make that much difference to investment as it's mostly short term greed thinking. Getting insurance in these areas is a another matter, and far more quickly linked to the risks of climate change

 

[ProDave]

Just out of interest did you do that for the green implications or reduced running costs? I went EV totally to reduce running costs, the green aspect is a bonus for me.

It was wanting a low running cost house, the fact it is green was a bonus. There is no mains gas here so the choice is oil, LPG or electric. Making the house well insulated enough to work with a low power heat pump means similar running costs to mains gas, and no need for an oil or LPG tank anywhere in the garden.

Hybrid or plug in hybrid?

Just hybrid at the moment. Next one will probably be plug in hybrid.

I think the planets worst enemy are the diesel 4x4's that never tow anything or go offroad, Chelsea Tractors, theyre the ones that should be taxed off the road.

Agree. Mine won't be doing many miles now, only when the grunt is needed.

I think phasing out the production of ICE cars is the right way, it gives those like me the chance to hang on to say a 4x4 for longer. I would hate to see a scheme that prematurely scraps perfectly good ICE cars just for the sake of it, that would not be doing justice to the embeded CO2 in a perfectly servicable vehicle with life left in it.

I'm not sure about the 'most' tag here, a lot of it I would agree.
I've just spent the last 8 weeks driving a Tesla car around 8 major citied housing stock on a project funded by the UK Space Agency. The car is equipped with a very expensive camera and Lidar system that records heatloss from buildings etc. It does a lot of other stuff too, way above my pay grade. The data is analysed by AI techniques and is producing some spectacular results, some them not anticipated (it analyses the litter in the streets and can identify some as coming from McDonalds, KFC, Costa, Starbucks etc). The data is going to be used to target insulation improvements to get the biggest bang per buck for UK zero carbon target. The 8 weeks was a trial of concept and we passed1 million homes target about 6 weeks in, the funding has now been released to scan 30 million homes. So look out for me scanning homes near you .

That is interesting. I would like to see the results of that if it is published anywhere. Working mostly in houses for the last 20 or more years I have seen all sorts of cold, miserable, damp, draughty houses where people spend a fortune on heating and are still not warm. Now after living in my almost passive house for 3 years, just visiting a relative and staying in their old house, I immediately smell the damp musty interior as I have been conditioned to living in a pleasant environment.

Cars are an easy target and a relatively quick and simple fix so I can see why theyre at theyre high up the priority list.

As above, I don't believe in scrapping a vehicle before it's end of life, so phasing out production of ICE cars is the right way, then people like me can continue with an ICE car for a while as long as we are happy with a second hand vehicle.

When you say grid capacity, are you referring to the generation capacity feeding into the grid or the capacity of the grid to transport the energy around the country? The latter is being helped enormously by all of the solar / battery installations taking place, energy is supplied locally to users when the grid demand is high, this reduces the loading considerably. It would be good to see more schemes for feeding into the grid during periods of maximum demand. I helped out with few during December and January and the payment was excessive in my view (on one occasion £4 per kWh). If the energy suppliers could have a scheme where your account was credited with a small percentage added for costs and a favourable supply tariff that would be better IMHO.

There is a big problem with grid capacity in parts of the network, Some wind farms have to shut down and stop generating at times because the grid is at capacity and cannot transport their power to point of use. Not a lot of point building more wind farms in those places until the grid bottlenecks are sorted out.

A case in point is the grid connection north of Beauly. They have been debating and planning a third overhead pylon for that route for at least 5 years now. I accept it has to be properly planned, but why is it taking so long? Put more people on the job? Speed up the planning permission system?

There are a few true green energy suppliers such as Octopus, my cars run from around March through September on my solar alone. As far as putting the cart before the horse, necessity is the mother of invention, the demand needs to come first in my view.

If you truly believe all that comes out of your sockets from Octopus is "green" you have fallen for the greenwash. So Octopus only buy green energy. That does not make the overall production any greener, it just means someone else pays for the less green energy. While a large percentage of the electricity generated domes from oil or gas generators, there is not much point switching more loads to electricity. All you are doing is shifting the pollution from home (or car) to power station, and reducing it a bit by economy of scale of a large power plant, you are not eliminating it. The only way you eliminate it is more green electricity generation, and that largely is beyond the control of ordinary people, that is a job for governments to plan and implement. So ultimately, the speed with which we move towards net zero is largely beyond individual control

I agree, we have Rolls Royce beating down the doors of government with their modular Nuclear Reactors that can be installed and on stream in less than 5 years, why are we not placing massive orders for these?

I used to work in the nuclear industry and used to support it. That was in the days when we still had our own research establishments and could design and build our own. Now we are buying in foreign designed and built nuclear generation it has just become a typical large scale over budget and over time project.

The SMR's are interesting, but again lots of talk of how RR have a proven product, but as soon as anyone talks about actually using them for power generation you get the waffle of how long it will take to develop that. WTF one breath you tell us it is a proven product, then you say it has a lot of development and will take a long time.

 

[apprentice87]

Had another good video but it will not let me post a link...

john..

 

[binky]

So cost effective options

 

[binky]

And finally, some good news...

 

[johnb2713]

It was wanting a low running cost house, the fact it is green was a bonus. There is no mains gas here so the choice is oil, LPG or electric. Making the house well insulated enough to work with a low power heat pump means similar running costs to mains gas, and no need for an oil or LPG tank anywhere in the garden.

No brainer then really.

Just hybrid at the moment. Next one will probably be plug in hybrid.

You end up with the worst of all worlds on this one, Hybrid = Not good.

That is interesting. I would like to see the results of that if it is published anywhere. Working mostly in houses for the last 20 or more years I have seen all sorts of cold, miserable, damp, draughty houses where people spend a fortune on heating and are still not warm.

Were sworn to secrecy and non disclosure etc so I cant give you any data, I believe it will eventually be sold but I have no idea when.

Now after living in my almost passive house for 3 years, just visiting a relative and staying in their old house, I immediately smell the damp musty interior as I have been conditioned to living in a pleasant environment.

That must be very satisfying.

As above, I don't believe in scrapping a vehicle before it's end of life, so phasing out production of ICE cars is the right way, then people like me can continue with an ICE car for a while as long as we are happy with a second hand vehicle.

Agreed

There is a big problem with grid capacity in parts of the network, Some wind farms have to shut down and stop generating at times because the grid is at capacity and cannot transport their power to point of use.

I have seen them stop the farms when the electricity is not needed, I havent been involved with farms shutdown because of gride capacity.

If you truly believe all that comes out of your sockets from Octopus is "green" you have fallen for the greenwash.

I dont believe that Octopus are not supplying green energy

So Octopus only buy green energy.

They generate some too

That does not make the overall production any greener, it just means someone else pays for the less green energy.

Not sure I follow, it's simple supply and demand model.

While a large percentage of the electricity generated domes from oil or gas generators, there is not much point switching more loads to electricity. All you are doing is shifting the pollution from home (or car) to power station, and reducing it a bit by economy of scale of a large power plant, you are not eliminating it.

I dont agree, I generate a reasonable amount of power from solar which runs my cars and much more. The electricity I buy from Octopus is from truly green sources.

The SMR's are interesting, but again lots of talk of how RR have a proven product, but as soon as anyone talks about actually using them for power generation you get the waffle of how long it will take to develop that. WTF one breath you tell us it is a proven product, then you say it has a lot of development and will take a long time.

Then the government should place a contract with them with penalty clauses.

 

[gezb]

OMG, I admit to being a watcher and not a contributor to this forum as I'm no longer an electrician, but please keep this forum fact based.
If you are a climate change denier keep it for fb or other forums where facts are simply overruled as nonsense.
How can you possibly deny the freakish weather patterns and believe man is not a factor?

Please do not make posts too personal.

 

[UNG]

OMG, I admit to being a watcher and not a contributor to this forum as I'm no longer an electrician, but please keep this forum fact based.
If you are a climate change denier keep it for fb or other forums where facts are simply overruled as nonsense.
How can you possibly deny the freakish weather patterns and believe man is not a factor?

You are obviously a climate change advocate who does not want to debate it and anyone who disagrees is climate change denier,
Man maybe one of many factors but is not the sole cause of climate change and I doubt we can tax climate change out of existance

The earth since it was formed has had many climate change episodes over many many millions of years including ice ages so climate change isn't that new if you look at all the planets in our solar system an alignment of them is likely to be a one in 22 billion years event and the universe has only been around for 14 billion, how that may affect the climate on earth is anybodies guess but I doubt any of us will be around by the time it happens
I think you need to look at the wider science and a bit of history before jumping to conclusions and dissing people which could be offensive to some

Please do not make posts too personal.