I can see us having a small EV for all our local runs but keeping our ICE for long trips or trips needing more space
I think this is the way we shall go. I have a perfectly good 5yr old diesel hyundai which is very comfortable to drive, reasonably economical, and I shall keep until its run into the ground, and a 10yr old petrol jazz which will probably have be replaced with an EV, when it finally gives up. Unfortunately EV car prices currently make that not viable.
Hopefully next bit is not too OT...
Diesel is still needed for haulage and farming applications so I can't see zero supply in the near to mid term even with ICE cars being banned by the govt, both industries are on fine margins so I don't foresee much demand for EV from those sectors for some time yet, unless diesel prices become really prohibitive, in which case I think the govt will have to reduce fuel tax or give some tax rebate for them, not that they have so far...
But as ICE cars are replaced with EV there may be a tipping point at which petrol/diesel supplies may become increasingly uneconomic to distribute and in a worst case the charging infrastructure will also not be ready for surge in EV demand.
The more remote towns and villages will probably be hit first with low supply as it becomes uneconomic to run a fuel station and paradoxically will also have the least use for EVs due to range problems. OK replace 50% of the pumps with EV charging points, but which forecourt wants a car sitting there for an hour? Markets will adapt, yes, but my instinct is that rural will suffer first and suffer most in the transition.
The other issue is income for the govt. Much revenue comes from fuel duty and this needs to be replaced to retain services and benefits, so if ICE's are banned how are EV's going to be taxed in the future to replace this revenue?
Some form of charge per mile of road usage?
i) read the odometer at MOT's send the data to govt who send you a bill?
ii) a widget on the car to track vehicle mileage with GPS, again send the data to govt who send you a bill?
both could be expensive to administer though.
In order to replace fuel duty directly it would need to be applied at point of use though, much as we pay some duty each time we use the petrol station.
Easy to apply duty at a public charging point since customer is billed already at point of use, not so easy for home EV points, although perhaps there could be meter on the home EV output too or supply of data to govt.
Electricity could be viewed as a fuel, and so EV's could be fitted with a charge-up meter to tax the electric used (replace volume of fuel with 'volume' of electric). Given that the electric 'tank' is a bit leaky (batteries don't hold their charge 100%) that's possibly a bit unfair. Would seem doable in principle but again not so readily point of use
Introduce a tax on no. of panels or kWp a property has, applied via poll tax?
The road tax step is only just the beginning....